History in a Blink: 3 Weeks That Shook Politics in the US
ANALYSIS: Indeed, the past three weeks in U.S. politics have produced major news developments at a pace more suited to months, if not years.
![Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with Republican vice presidential nominee, U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, after officially accepting the Republican presidential and vice presidential nominations on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with Republican vice presidential nominee, U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, after officially accepting the Republican presidential and vice presidential nominations on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.](https://publisher-ncreg.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/pb-ncregister/swp/hv9hms/media/20240719010720_16e7f48de46de49fda92e469a6b34d7031a5aa384dca91b3a0c326c8d8745e85.jpg)
Three weeks ago, it could be said that Americans were tuning out of the 2024 presidential election. The rematch between President Biden and former President Trump, two men with high disapproval ratings in the sunset of life, elicited groans from casual observers and experts alike. Ratings for political programming were down; visits to political news sites had fallen off a cliff relative to previous election cycles. A recent Pew poll found that 60% of Americans considered both candidates “embarrassing.”
But as an old saying goes: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”
Indeed, the past three weeks in U.S. politics have produced major news developments at a pace more suited to months, if not years. A sitting president appeared alarmingly frail, leading many to question whether the Democratic nomination, let alone the country, rested in safe hands. The Republican platform plank on abortion was dramatically altered by the removal of a long-standing call to amend the Constitution to protect unborn life. Rampant speculation abounded over Joe Biden’s possible successor. Former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt mere days before his classified-documents case was dismissed. And a controversial Catholic convert was tapped as Trump’s running mate.
In a move that marked a shift away from traditional conservatism for the GOP, Trump on Monday chose Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, to be his running mate. Like Trump, Vance, the author of the best-selling 2016 memoir Hillbilly Elegy, favors a more populist approach on economics, a “softer” stance on abortion, and a less interventionist foreign policy.
During his acceptance speech Wednesday at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Vance appealed directly to working class voters in his native Midwest, the region widely considered to be crucial in the coming election.
“To the people of Middletown, Ohio, and all the forgotten communities in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio, and every corner of our nation, I promise you this,” he said. “I will be a vice president who never forgets where he came from.”
The Vance pick was met with mixed reactions among the Catholic community.
Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation, praised Vance’s credibility on foreign policy, as well as his commitment to Catholicism.
“Vance is an extremely serious Roman Catholic,” Roberts told the Register. “That should excite Catholics and other people of faith.”
Others, noting Vance’s questionable pro-life credentials following his support for the continued accessibility of the abortion pill mifepristone, were dismayed by the selection.
“Both J.D. Vance and President Trump support the legalization of abortion pills,” wrote Lila Rose of Live Action on X. “This is heartbreaking and wrong. Vance was once strongly against the murder of all preborn babies. Both men can still change their positions and we will pray and work for them to do so.”
In response to criticism on the life issue, Vance has sought to reassure social conservatives of their role within the Republican Party.
“Social conservatives have a seat at this table, and they always will so long as I have any influence in this party,” he remarked at the Faith and Freedom Coalition breakfast the morning after his acceptance speech. “President Trump, I know, agrees.”
He also accused Democrats of distorting his position in relation to abortion during an appearance with Sean Hannity earlier in the week. “The Democrats have completely twisted my words. What I did say is that we sometimes in this society see babies as inconveniences, and I absolutely want us to change that,” Vance explained.
For Catholic writer Brendan Michael Dougherty, the Vance pick signaled a long-needed passing of the baton to the next generation of Republican leaders.
“Great VP pick,” he remarked on X. “Finally ditching the most brain-dead ideologies that have been dragging the party down, and finally a candidate in touch with issues that actually affect people under 40 years old.”
Earlier in the evening, the White House announced that Biden had contracted COVID-19 and that he had met days before with Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., in private to discuss the possibility of withdrawing from the race due to poor polling, poor fundraising, and a sense that a Trump victory was inevitable without a change at the top of the ticket.
Biden’s standing within the Democratic Party has dropped significantly since his widely panned performance during the first presidential debate in Atlanta in late June, during which he spoke in a hushed and raspy voice, had difficulty finishing thoughts, and often appeared dazed while Trump was speaking. His slack-jawed expression during Trump’s rebuttals was widely lampooned on social media.
In the immediate aftermath, some experts, along with the Biden campaign, argued that it was simply “a bad night” and not without precedent in the history of presidential debates. This has failed to fend off calls for him to withdraw from across the party, including a growing number of high-ranking elected officials.
Reports Thursday morning indicate a new willingness by Biden to consider dropping out of the race.
Despite Biden’s previous insistence on remaining in the race through the November election, rampant speculation about who might replace Biden on the ticket has abounded in political media since the debate.
While a number of “dream tickets” have been bandied about online, including names like California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, numerous insiders believe that Vice President Kamala Harris would be the heavy favorite should Biden ultimately step aside.
There are a number of factors at play in the vice president’s favor. For one, a Harris nomination would likely face the fewest procedural hurdles at the rapidly approaching Democratic National Convention. If Biden withdrew, campaign finance experts believe that Harris would immediately be in charge of the Biden campaign’s considerable war chest since her name is on the original Federal Elections Committee filings as part of the Biden campaign.
In addition, Harris’ identity as the first Black and Asian women vice president makes sidestepping her difficult, if not impossible, for a Democratic Party that has prioritized racial diversity in recent years.
Allies of Harris have issued warnings on these grounds in response to rumors of Harris being cast aside for the nomination.
“They still don’t get that the message you’re saying to people, to this Democratic Party, is, we prefer a white person,” said an unnamed Harris ally to Politico. “The fact that people keep coming back to this is so offensive to so many of us.”
“Skip over @KamalaHarris at your own peril,” CNN commentator Bakari Sellers posted on X Thursday evening.
A Harris nomination would have major implications on the future of abortion in America. Harris, the only vice president to ever visit an abortion provider, has also been long considered the “Biden administration’s voice” on the issue.
Speculation over the fate of the Democratic ticket was briefly overshadowed following the attempted assassination of Trump at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on July 13.
Minutes into an open-air appearance at a sprawling fairgrounds before a crowd of thousands, a series of loud popping noises rang out. Trump grabbed his ear and fell to the ground as a team of Secret Service agents leaped onto the former president. Attendees shielded their heads and took cover. Screams were heard.
After firing at least six shots, the shooter, a 20 year-old named Thomas Crooks, was shot and killed by a Secret Service sniper.
And then, in one of the most iconic instances of political theater in U.S. history, Trump asked for his shoes, rose to his feet, and, with blood trickling down the side of his face, pumped his fist in the air and shouted, “Fight!”
The crowd erupted with chants of “USA! USA!” as Trump was whisked to his motorcade, waving his fist once more before lowering his head into the vehicle.
Trump sustained minor injuries to his ear and was released from a nearby hospital soon after. At 8:13 that evening, Biden addressed the nation from his beach home in Delaware, denouncing the shooting and urging calm, a message he reiterated the following evening from the Oval Office.
Numerous digital illustrations have speculated that Trump’s sudden turn of the head at the last possible moment saved him from sure death. A deluge of observers credited the hand of God for sparing Trump’s life — and perhaps the nation from a broader violent conflict.
“The fact that Donald J. Trump is alive today is a miracle,” wrote commentator Ben Shapiro in The Daily Signal. “There is no other way to see it.”
If Trump’s good fortune couldn’t get any better, days following the shooting, a federal judge dismissed what many legal experts believed to be the most damning of the numerous indictments he faced: the classified documents case in Florida. In a normal news cycle, this would be the story of the month, if not the season.
The Democratic National Convention will be held Aug. 19-22 in Chicago. Should Biden decide to step aside, it could be the most unpredictable and chaotic convention since the 1968 Democratic Convention, also held in Chicago.
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