When they enter the Sistine Chapel to elect the successor to Peter’s throne, the European cardinals will carry on their shoulders a heavy responsibility for the fate of their continent, which is facing challenges unprecedented since the Church of the first centuries. At a time when some postulate that Europe might soon become irrelevant because of the increasing prominence of the Global South — where the Church is growing fastest — it remains, as its institutional and theological center of gravity, a key player in the conclave outcome.  

With currently 53 of the 135 voting cardinals coming from Europe — a third of whom are Italians —  their collective priorities and concerns will influence not only the choice of the next pope but also the direction of the Church in a rapidly changing world. 

It is becoming clear, however, that the European bloc is no longer unified. Divisions over the legacy of Pope Francis’ reforms and the Church’s response to various manifestations of secularism reflect deeper cultural and theological fault lines. European cardinals will face a difficult balancing act: preserving the Church’s traditional teachings and identity while adapting to new social realities. 

Tackling Secularism, Sexual Abuse, Church Divisions 

One of the most pressing concerns for them will be the widespread secularism and the dramatic loss of religious influence in Europe. Once the heart of Christendom, Europe now has countries where those who claim they have “no religion” are a majority. Mass attendance has overall dropped sharply since the 1970s, and the Church’s moral influence over public life has been almost completely nullified, especially in countries like France and Germany. The need to address increasing challenges to religious institutions and religious liberty in these secular societies, where pro-life movements operate legally but face mounting social and political pressure that threatens their participation in public discourse, could be a key priority for many of them. 

These alarming trends are accompanied by a new significant phenomenon: the spectacular rise in the number of young-adult baptisms during Easter celebrations in certain countries of the Old Continent — foremost among them France, England and Belgium. The need to accompany this phenomenon appropriately so that it bears fruit over the long term should not escape the attention of the cardinal electors either, all the more so as the bishops of France have just announced the holding of a provincial council to meet the challenges of the new catechumens from Pentecost 2026 onwards. 

The cardinals will be looking for a pontiff capable of inspiring the respect of Europe’s leaders and addressing younger generations in search of moral and identity reference points, in a way adapted to today’s language and codes.  

Moreover, the sexual-abuse crisis remains a major wound in the European Church. Scandals in Germany, France, Spain, Belgium and Italy have severely damaged public trust. While Pope Francis introduced some reforms, many European cardinals believe more decisive action is needed. Some of them will push for greater transparency and accountability, while others may be more cautious when approaching deeper structural reforms, fearing it could create a climate of excessive suspicion and ultimately undermine the priesthood and the Church’s authority, or even jeopardize the seal of confession.  

The question of the enduring unity of the Catholic Church was also posed by the recent German Synodal Way (2019-2023) and plans to turn it into a permanent synodal council, which challenged some core doctrinal Church teachings regarding sexuality, female ordination and lay preaching, causing tensions with the Vatican. The Synod on Synodality initiated by Pope Francis between 2021 and 2024 has further revealed the growing divisions among European bishops over the degree of authority national Churches should have in shaping Catholic practice, which will be another unavoidable area of concern.  

At the same time, the redefinition of political movements underway across Europe, marked in particular by the emergence of right-wing populist parties, is bound to have an impact on the life of national Churches. With many of these new leaders openly asserting their Christian faith and their sympathy for the Catholic Church, many cardinals may be inclined to elect a pope who can skillfully engage in dialogue with them and thus maintain the influence of the Holy See without compromising its independence and universality.  

Finally, they will necessarily bear in mind the future implementation of the motu proprio Traditionis Custodes that imposed severe restrictions on the celebration of the traditional Latin Mass. This has given rise to a great deal of tension between the Church hierarchy and local communities, which are often largely made up of young people: the future of Christianity.  

3 Core Blocks   

These contrasted dynamics have fostered the emergence of three main blocks that will shape the voting cardinals’ approach to the conclave. 

The reformist or “pro-Francis” bloc seeks continuity with the Argentine Pope’s pastoral approach, which is largely focused on mercy, social justice and interreligious dialogue. This group is open to reforms on issues such as the inclusion of same-sex couples, access to Communion for divorced-and-remarried couples, and greater involvement of the laity. They also favor greater promotion of ecumenism and dialogue with Islam. Cardinals such as Italy’s Matteo Zuppi, Portugal’s José Tolentino de Mendonça (also prefect of the Dicastery for Culture and Education), France’s Jean-Marc Aveline and Poland’s Grzegorz Ryś are among them. They are likely to press for the Church’s greater engagement with modern society. 

The conservative bloc, on the other hand, favors doctrinal clarity and moral consistency over pastoral flexibility. This group regards decentralization and doctrinal evolution with caution, seeing such shifts as a threat to the Church’s unity and historic authority. They will probably advocate a clarification and tidying up of Pope Francis’ various motu proprios, which have been perceived as confusing by part of the institutional Church and the faithful, as Italian Vaticanist Andrea Gagliarducci recently pointed out. Cardinals like Gerhard Müller from Germany, Péter Erdő from Hungary or Wim Eijk from the Netherlands represent prominent figures in this group.  

A final bloc, which could be defined as the institutional stabilizers, focuses on Vatican governance and internal stability. This group seeks to balance tradition and pastoral flexibility without introducing major structural changes. Cardinals such as Italian Pietro Parolin, the Holy See’s current secretary of state; Swiss Kurt Koch, prefect of the Dicastery for the Promotion of Christian Unity; and Italian Claudio Gugerotti, prefect of the Dicastery for Eastern Churches, are positioned within this faction. Whether progressive or conservative, these profiles are seen as essentially pragmatic and likely to support a pontiff capable of uniting the various factions within the Church and restoring the Vatican’s credibility without introducing disruptive reforms. 

Preserving Europe’s Institutional Weight  

Voting European cardinals, 17 of whom are Italians, are likely to strive to maintain their influence in Vatican governance, as a new pope from the Global South could further consolidate the cultural shift initiated by Pope Francis. Their challenge will be, therefore, to find a pope who can preserve the institutional weight of Europe without compromising the growing momentum of the South. 

Although the next pope may not be European, the European cardinals’ votes will carry significant weight. They will want, as the new successor to St. Peter, a man capable of reinforcing doctrinal clarity and restoring the Church’s credibility, while responding to new social and political realities without alienating key factions. No single candidate is likely to satisfy all these criteria, but European cardinals’ priorities will weigh strongly on the next pope’s agenda. The stakes are all the higher, since a loss of European influence consolidated over time could definitively change the face of the universal Church.