Nearly two long years ago, former president Donald Trump kicked off the 2024 presidential cycle by announcing his candidacy for the Republican nomination. What a long, strange pair of years it’s been. And what a relief this chapter is finally ending. It’s a truism that campaigning never really ends in America, and it’s true enough. But after two years of perpetual scandal, cynicism and poll-parsing, all Americans could use a break. 

Alas, it’s not yet time to relax. Election Day is almost upon us. We are about to be engulfed by waves of information, and only some of it will be useful. “Hot takes” about what the vote means will be tossed around freely by pundits on TV. CNN alone places a dozen of them around its election desk, lest a single speculation goes unuttered.

So I bid you to follow me once more into the breach, my dear politicos. Let's examine some of the key questions that will be answered on Tuesday in order to make sense of the madness.

1. How big is the gender gap?

In 2020, President Joe Biden won 55% of women voters to Trump’s 44%, while men split nearly evenly between the two. Polls in this election indicate a yawning gender gap between the nominees. A recent Quinnipiac poll, mirroring other surveys, shows 57% of women preferring Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and 37% favoring Trump. Meanwhile, it shows 56% of men back Trump while 40% back Harris. 

More important is what the size of the gender gap says about our polity. Should the gap be as large or larger than expected, it would underscore heightened tensions between the sexes in a nation roiled by abortion and shifting family dynamics related to work and child-rearing. 

2. What percentage of Black and Hispanic voters will defect to the GOP?

Many have speculated that this race could signal a racial realignment in American politics. Polling throughout the campaign has indicated a shift in Black and Hispanic preference toward Trump. This is especially the case among Black and Hispanic men. 

Should Black and Hispanic voters continue their drift toward Trump and the GOP, it would have major implications on “identity politics,” which were ramped up in the summer of 2020 following the death of George Floyd. It would signal a repudiation of “woke” social activism that placed an emphasis on politically correct language and radical concepts like “defund the police” over making practical improvements in the lives of minorities. And it would also undermine the “woke” assumption that one’s identity dictates a specific, pre-ordained set of policy priorities.

Polling indicates that Black and Hispanic voters have drifted toward Trump because they believe  he will better manage the economy and the border — which is the same reason given by White people for preferring Trump.
 

3. How will Catholics vote?

While support for Trump among evangelical Christians shows no sign of cracking, the Catholic vote appears to be a wild card. 

As ever, the Catholic vote appears up for grabs, as it was in 2020, when Biden won 50% of the Catholic vote overall and 52% in the all-important swing state of Pennsylvania. Polls this cycle have shown a tight race for the Catholic vote between Biden and Harris. 

It will be interesting to see if exit polling reveals whether Catholic voters held true to polling from the summer that showed Catholics prioritizing the economy above all and immigration to a lesser degree — and whether Catholic priorities change from state to state.

It will be particularly fascinating to hear anecdotal evidence from Catholics in swing states to see which ads and surrogates proved most effective at courting their vote. 

Was the Catholic voter outreach of Rep. Conor Lamb’s, D-Pa., centered on migrant suffering, health care and the environment more effective than the warnings of threats posed by Harris to religious freedom by vice-presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio? The answer could have major implications on how Catholic voters are targeted by political parties in the future. 

4. What about Muslims?

While accounting for a smaller chunk of the overall electorate at around 1%, the Muslim vote is heavily concentrated in the swing states, particularly in Michigan. Biden won a commanding 86% of the Muslim vote in 2020. 

But a new poll from the Council on American-Islamic Relations released Friday shows Green Party nominee Jill Stein carrying the Muslim vote with 42%, while Harris earns 41% and Trump 10%.  And on Saturday, prominent Muslim Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., declined to endorse Harris over her support for Israel’s actions in the conflict in Gaza. 

In an election likely to be decided in a handful of states with large Muslim populations, the shift could be significant.  

5. Do any non-battleground states end up being tighter than expected?

Conventional wisdom holds that only seven states will be truly competitive Tuesday night: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. 

But in recent weeks, polls in a few other states have tightened. A pair of polls found New Hampshire, a state Harris has led comfortably throughout the campaign, suddenly within the margin of error. The same is true of Minnesota, home state of Democratic vice-presidential nominee Gov. Tim Walz. Virginia polls have also been tighter of late, though my sources in the state say GOP enthusiasm is wishful thinking. 

On the flip side, should Democrats succeed in expanding the electoral map, Texas and Florida are two states where they’d hope to see movement. Harris held a major, star-studded rally in Houston last week, and Florida’s proposed Amendment 4 puts abortion on the ballot, an issue on which voters prefer Democrats, according to polls. 

On Saturday evening, the Des Moines Register released a surprising poll of Iowa voters showing Harris with a three-point lead over Trump. Emerson College also released an Iowa poll on Saturday showing Trump with a 10-point lead. Trump won Iowa in the last two elections by nine points, and Republicans currently enjoy a 130,000 registered voter advantage in the state. The Des Moines Register poll, conducted by polling guru Ann Selzer, caused the political world to gasp — and, indeed, if Iowa is competitive, it will bode well for Harris’ overall chances.
 

6. Will there be any upsets in the Senate races? 

With Harris threatening to eliminate the filibuster, which would lower the number of Senate votes needed to pass legislation from 60 to 50, to codify “abortion rights” nationally, the balance of the upper chamber has taken on a new importance. Democrats currently have a 51-49 advantage in the Senate, though current polling suggests Republican will win back control on Tuesday. The races in Montana, West Virginia and Ohio offer Republicans their best chance of flipping seats from blue to red, while tight races in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are worth keeping an eye on. 

Democrats are targeting Republican incumbents in Texas and Florida. 

7. Can the pro-life movement break its losing streak?

It isn’t news that pro-abortion ballot initiatives have been wildly successful in the post-Dobbs era. In fact, the pro-life movement has failed to score a single win in a state ballot initiative since the fall of Roe, including in red states such as Kansas and Ohio.

On Tuesday, 10 states will decide on an abortion-related ballot measure. Should the pro-life movement fail to notch a single victory, particularly in Florida, where the threshold for passage is 60%, it’s fair to wonder whether it can win anywhere. 

Another clean sweep for the pro-abortion movement would cause some uncomfortable conversations in pro-life circles about the future of the movement.