As relations between China and the United States become increasingly strained amid a trade war triggered by the Trump administration’s new tariffs, the fate of political prisoners in Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland may hang in the balance.

For Jimmy Lai, the Catholic human-rights activist on trial for violating Hong Kong’s new security law, a trade war “presents challenges and potential opportunities,” Benedict Rogers, founder and trustee of Hong Kong Watch, told the Register.

“As tensions rise, it may make it more difficult to negotiate Jimmy Lai’s release, but it may present an opportunity for leverage that could be used to secure his release,” said Rogers. The 77-year-old Lai, founder of the now-defunct pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily, has spent more than five years in prison in solitary confinement. 

“The United States should think creatively and certainly make his freedom a priority concern,” Rogers added. “It is vital that his case, and human rights in Hong Kong and China in general, do not get forgotten among the tariff war and the focus on economic policy.”

According to Mark Clifford, author of The Troublemaker: How Jimmy Lai Became a Billionaire, Hong Kong’s Greatest Dissident, and China’s Most Feared Critic, the U.S. should work to keep open other avenues of diplomatic discussion with China, even as tensions over a trade war increase. 

“I hope that in areas where the U.S. and China can work together — whether in fentanyl, human rights (including wrongfully detained people), or energy and environmental issues — talks will continue,” said Clifford.

Under such circumstances, he said, he could see an opening for Lai’s release.

“At a time of heightened trade tensions, it’s more important than ever that discussions continue in these less highly charged areas. When Sino-U.S. relations do start warming, letting Jimmy Lai out of prison would be a low-cost, high-reward gesture on the part of China,” Clifford said.

Sebastien Lai, the son of the imprisoned media magnate, traveled to Washington last month to meet with State Department officials and members of Congress about securing his father’s release.

At a press conference on March 11, he stressed the importance of getting his father, who suffers from diabetes, out of jail as soon as possible. 

“There is a real fear that [my father] might pass away at any time, especially given that we have summer coming up,” with high temperatures, he said. 

The new U.S. administration makes him “a lot more hopeful,” Sebastien Lai said. During the 2024 campaign, Donald Trump promised to get the senior Lai released from prison.

“By the way, 100%, I’ll get him out. He’ll be easy to get out,” Trump told talk-show host Hugh Hewitt. 

“President Trump was the first president in the United States that mentioned my father by name,” Lai said. 

Not every advocate for Lai’s release is optimistic that Lai could be freed through American diplomacy. Nina Shea, a scholar at the Hudson Institute, said she is not aware that any negotiations for Lai’s release are taking place.

“He is not an American citizen. The court hearing his case boasts of a 100% conviction rate. Life term is a possible sentence. I’m hoping that, given his age, he will be able to serve any sentence under house arrest,” Shea told the Register.

Shea shared her doubts that the judicial system in Hong Kong, which is controlled by Beijing, would show any leniency toward Lai. 

“But the Chinese Communist Party abjures mercy. It even changed a Gospel story in a government textbook from a Christian lesson of mercy to one of retribution. In the story of the adulterous woman, the Chinese authorities changed the ending to one where Jesus stones the woman to death,” she said.

While it is difficult to determine how many political prisoners remain behind bars in China and Hong Kong, the Political Prisoner Database maintained by the Congressional-Executive Commission on China (CECC) estimated in 2019 that there were about 1,600 such detainees.