What Will Be the Price of Pope Francis’ China Dream?

COMMENTARY: The Pope’s intervention in the dialogue with China’s communist regime suggests he might be willing to downplay religious-freedom concerns and compromise Rome’s diplomatic relations with Taiwan, to facilitate his desire to visit China.

Pope Francis greets the people of China as he concludes Mass  in the Hun Theater on Sept. 3, 2023, in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, during his 43rd apostolic journey abroad.
Pope Francis greets the people of China as he concludes Mass in the Hun Theater on Sept. 3, 2023, in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, during his 43rd apostolic journey abroad. (photo: Vatican Media via Vatican Pool/Getty Images)

Details always make the difference. Thus, it is not enough to read the Aug. 15 press release in which the Holy See Press Office announced that Cardinal Matteo Zuppi had a telephone conversation the previous day with Li Hui, the Chinese government’s special representative for Euro-Asian Affairs.

It is also necessary to read the press release from the Chinese side, which arrived one day before the one from the Holy See. The details and differences in these two press releases say much more than the official words — they indicate the specific will of Pope Francis with respect to dialogue with China.

Shortly before the Aug. 14 phone call, an interview the Pope gave to the Asian Province of the Jesuits was finally published. Francis sat for the interview on May 24, the day of Mary, Help of Christians, and the pilgrimage to the Chinese sanctuary of Sheshan, as well as a day of prayer for the Catholic Church in China. In it, Francis spoke about his dream of visiting China.

In the meantime, preparations have likely begun for the next Sino-Vatican meeting in China to renew the provisional agreement on the appointment of bishops. Signed in 2018, the agreement has been renewed every two years and that should continue. However, this year also brought a novelty — a midterm meeting in Rome between the Chinese side and the Vatican’s counterpart.

It is a complex dialogue. Pope Francis, however, wants to continue it at all costs, cherishing the dream of being the first pope to travel to Beijing. It is not the first time that the Holy See has agreed with a government to appoint bishops. Sometimes, it is a necessary evil, as was the case in Hungary in 1956. Such arrangements do not mean the Holy See is blind to problems of religious freedom. The Holy See considers this type of agreement not ideal and a provisional starting point for carrying forward a difficult but important dialogue.

The Vatican secretary of state, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, knows this.

As a young officer in the Vatican’s diplomatic service, Cardinal Parolin worked on a similar agreement with Vietnam, not as publicized as the Chinese one but which bore fruit in an official bilateral dialogue that lasted more than 10 years. Now, Hanoi and the Holy See are one step away from full diplomatic relations.

However, Pope Francis needs more than the prudent line of the Vatican Secretariat of State. The Pope has his parallel diplomacy, made up of special envoys and personal conversations. When the Pope sees an obstacle, he tries to overcome it.

So, when Pope Francis decided to appoint a special envoy for the situation in Ukraine and chose Cardinal Zuppi, he also accepted the idea that the cardinal would go not only to Kyiv and Moscow, but also to Washington and Beijing. In this way, the Pope recognized China as a possible mediator, gave China the international credibility that it was particularly seeking, and opened a diplomatic channel of dialogue parallel to that of the Secretariat of State.

This brings us to the Aug. 15 press release from the Holy See Press Office. The Vatican press release limited itself to discussing the situation in Ukraine, explaining that the conversation between Cardinal Zuppi and Li occurred “as part of the mission entrusted to the cardinal by Pope Francis for peace in Ukraine and following the meeting in Beijing last September.”

Beijing’s tone was different. To hear the Chinese tell it, Cardinal Zuppi was the one who requested the call. This is no small matter.

The Chinese statement also said, “Matteo Zuppi, on behalf of Pope Francis, thanked the Chinese government for its unswerving efforts in promoting peace and expressed his appreciation on the positive role of the six common understandings [issued by China and Brazil] in the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.” Finally, “the two sides also exchanged views on the current situation of the Ukraine crisis, the process of peace talks, and other [matters].”

Beijing is, therefore, keen to represent the phone call as international recognition by the Holy See, precisely at a time when religious freedom and freedom of expression in Beijing have become crucial issues, possibly also touched upon in the election campaign for the U.S. presidency.

China senses an opening on the part of the Pope and perhaps wants to force his hand toward full diplomatic relations. This would overshadow religious-freedom problems — which the Holy See always highlights in confidential dialogues — but it could also force the Holy See to break off relations with Taiwan. Removing Taiwan from its only remaining Western ally could be the basis of China’s strategy with the Holy See.

For now, it is only a telephone conversation. However, the fact that the Secretariat of State was not involved, that China considers Cardinal Zuppi an interlocutor, and that Cardinal Zuppi requested the phone call suggests that the Pope is trying to force the hand on dialogue with China.

But if so, the question is: What cost might Francis be willing to make the Church pay, in return for a papal trip to China?

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